Politics

Uranium Dispute with France Shapes Niger Junta’s Investment and Security Strategy

On 4 February, Nigerien Justice Minister Alio Daouda announced that Niger would take legal action against French state-owned mining company Orano due to environmental degradation. Faced with worsening fiscal constraints and a worsening terrorism threat, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, who took over the presidency after a coup d’état on 26 July 2023, will seek to woo …

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Renewed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray unlikely despite mounting tensions

On 31 January, two separate drone strikes hit Enticho and Gendebta (Tigray Regional State), killing one person and injuring another. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which engaged in a two-year conflict with the federal government in 2020, will push back heavily against the efforts of the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) to co-opt Tigrayan political …

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Rwanda/DRC conflict enters a new phase as Rwanda admits backing rebels

On 22 January, Rwandan Ambassador to the US Mathilde Mukantabana told US lawmakers that Rwanda engages in “security coordination” with the March 23 rebel group, which has occupied large territories in neighbouring Eastern DRC since January 2025. For decades, Rwanda has denied any collaboration with the M23 despite multiple reports by the UN and independent …

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Kenya’s Geopolitical Tightrope: New China Trade Deal Tests US Relations

On 20 January, Kenyan Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui announced that Kenya had concluded a preliminary duty-free trade agreement with China. The agreement, which is expected to pave the way for a bilateral treaty, grants 98% of Kenyan exports tariff-free access to Chinese markets. It underlines Kenya’s growing preference for economic cooperation with China, amid growing …

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Between Populism and Default: Why Senegal’s Debt Restructuring is Inevitable

On 13 January, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko publicly ruled out restructuring the nation’s debt, which the IMF places at 132% of GDP. Sonko’s stance against debt restructuring is at least partially driven by genuine concerns over its likely impact on the country’s reputation in the international financial markets. However, political considerations, especially the need to …

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Forecast: Uganda’s 2026 Elections to Fuel Localized Unrest Amid Museveni’s Bid for Seventh Term

Uganda’s Ministry of Information has banned live broadcasts of “riots” ahead of the 15 January general elections, a move critics fear signals a broader crackdown. The government has restricted Starlink internet services and a pattern of violence against opposition figures is increasing, including the detention of veteran leader Kizza Besigye. President Yoweri Museveni, 81, is …

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