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Tshisekedi’s third-term push: Why the DRC faces a new civil war threat

On 16 June, the DRC’s Senate passed a bill that allows changes to the constitutional presidential term limit and duration through a referendum. The bill has triggered unrest in the capital, Kinshasa, as the opposition accuse President Felix Tshisekedi of planning to extend his mandate, which ends in December 2028. Despite launching a new coalition …

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South Africa’s Xenophobic Unrest: Domestic Drivers, Limited Diplomatic Fallout

On 7 June, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa warned against incitement to violence, amid rising anti-immigrant unrest in the country. As grievances over high unemployment rates and poor public services persist, xenophobic sentiments against African immigrants in South Africa will persist in the coming years. Politicians are likely to exploit these sentiments ahead of the …

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Courts, crowds, and contagion fears: Why Ruto is losing trust over US Ebola facility

At least two people were killed in Nanyuki (Laikipia County), Kenya, on 1 June during protests against the planned establishment of a US-sponsored Ebola quarantine facility in the area. The planned quarantine facility has elicited widespread condemnation from the population, and the High Court has ordered the government to suspend the establishment of the facility. …

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Sonko’s Assembly Presidency Sets Stage for Policy Paralysis and Sovereign Default Risk in Senegal

On 26 May, Ousmane Sonko was elected as the President of the National Assembly, four days after being dismissed from his post as Prime Minister. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will struggle to assert his authority over the coming year, as Sonko uses his new position to further consolidate power in the African Patriots of Senegal …

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Ebola in DRC: Security Risks in Conflict Zones Outweigh Health Threats to Business

On 17 May, the WHO announced that a recent outbreak of Ebola disease in DRC and Uganda constitutes a public health emergency of international concern, although it does not meet the criteria for a pandemic. The ongoing outbreak, which is concentrated in the DRC’s Ituri province, is driven by the Bundibugyo strain of the virus, …

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Tanga or Mombasa? Dangote’s Refinery Gambit Tests EAC Diplomacy

On 4 May, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu chastised her Kenyan counterpart, William Ruto, for announcing a planned oil refinery project in Tanga (Tanzania), claiming that she was not consulted. The planned refinery project is set to be funded by prominent Nigerian businessman Aligo Dangote to serve the East African Community (EAC) regional bloc. However, the …

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US Hits Kabila: Win for Tshisekedi, But M23 Withdrawal Hinges on Rwanda

On 30 April, the US sanctioned the DRC’s former President, Joseph Kabila (2001–2019), accusing him of funding the Rwanda-backed March 23 (M23) rebel group. The sanctions will boost President Felix Tshisekedi’s bargaining power, as he steps up efforts to co-opt sections of the M23 through a mix of intimidation and negotiation. This is likely to …

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Russia’s failing Mali bargain: Attacks near presidency trigger new coup risk

On 28 April, Russian private military company Africorps announced that it had withdrawn from the Malian town of Kidal after two days of intense fighting with Tuareg rebels. Following a series of coordinated armed attacks in several parts of Mali, including the capital Bamako and the military town of Kati, on 24 April, the security …

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Sudan crisis set to worsen despite senior RSF defection to army

On 18 April, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), met with Maj. Gen. Al-Nour Ahmed Adam (also known as Al-Nour Guba), who recently defected from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group. Fighting between the RSF and the SAF, which escalated into a civil war in April 2023, has intensified …

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Gold, guns, and patronage: Why DRC’s refinery reform may falter

On 9 April, Andre Wameso, the Governor of the Congo (DRC)’s Central Bank (BCC), announced that the BCC had received its first batch of refined gold from the country’s first gold refinery. This is part of the BCC’s first structured gold purchasing initiative, which is supposed to rely on the recently launched gold refinery in …

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