At least two people were killed in Nanyuki (Laikipia County), Kenya, on 1 June during protests against the planned establishment of a US-sponsored Ebola quarantine facility in the area.
- The planned quarantine facility has elicited widespread condemnation from the population, and the High Court has ordered the government to suspend the establishment of the facility.
- Despite this, the government is unlikely to shelve the plans or its desire to facilitate the US response to Ebola, as it seeks to boost access to US funding for its healthcare sector.
- This will worsen the public mistrust of President William Ruto, especially as he faces mounting accusations of authoritarianism.
- Although Ruto is still the front-runner for the 2027 presidential elections, he will struggle to contain socio-economic grievances in the coming months, increasing the intensity of protests in urban areas.
- In addition to periods of operational disruption, these issues will expose organisations to some level of suspicion and scrutiny from the public.
Widespread resistance
It is still unclear how the people died. However, police used tear gas to disperse hundreds of Nanyuki residents who had gathered to denounce reports that a planned facility to host US citizens who have been exposed to Ebola would be set up in an airbase close to the city. This came amid widespread condemnation of the planned facility, which the US Department of State first announced on 28 May.
On 28 May, Katiba Institute, a Kenyan legal advocacy group, filed a petition in the High Court seeking to stop the establishment of the facility, citing constitutional violations. The Kenya Medical Practitioners, Pharmacists and Dentists Union (KMPDU) also threatened to strike if the government did not detail the terms of its agreement with the US. On the same day, the High Court temporarily suspended the establishment of the facility, and prohibited the government from allowing the entry of any persons infected with Ebola into the country under such a deal. On 2 June, the High Court extended the suspension until the petition is determined. Underpinning this resistance is a strong fear among the general population and healthcare professionals that the Kenyan healthcare system would not be able to cope with an Ebola outbreak. In addition, amid speculation that the Ebola facility would only be open to US citizens, some activists fear that the deal could undermine Kenya’s sovereignty and result in “health apartheid”.
Despite this, reports indicate that US health personnel have continued to arrive in Kenya for the planned facility. Moreover, on 1 June, Ruto defended the planned facility, citing a mutual agreement between his country and the US. He also insisted that the planned facility would be open to Kenyans and other nationalities.
Policy considerations
Ruto’s handling of the Ebola controversy will make it even harder for him to regain public trust ahead of the 2027 general elections. Kenya has legitimate reasons to cooperate with the US Ebola response, especially as it seeks to boost funding for its own Ebola preparedness efforts. The country’s proximity to Uganda, which has recorded at least nine cases and shares a porous border with the epicentre of the outbreak in Ituri province (eastern DRC), makes it vulnerable to spillover, especially if security challenges continue to hamper containment efforts in Ituri.
In exchange for hosting the quarantine centre, the US has committed USD 13.5 m to support Kenya’s Ebola preparedness campaign. This funding is badly needed, especially amid reduced aid flows, which have worsened budget shortfalls in the healthcare sector.
Public perceptions
At the same time, the Kenyan government’s keenness to facilitate the US Ebola response, even in the face of multiple court orders, may help Kenya solidify its position as a regional hub. This will ensure continued US funding and security/trade cooperation, even as the US reduces direct engagements with many other African countries. Because of these considerations, the Ruto administration will most likely continue to downplay the concerns of the general population and civil society. In addition to exposing the US to major public scrutiny and hostility from sections of the youth, this attitude is likely to legitimise perceptions that Ruto has authoritarian tendencies.
Ruto’s image has long been associated with political violence due to accusations of crimes against humanity during the 2007 post-election violence, for which he was prosecuted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Although the case against Ruto was ultimately dropped and he went on to win the support of youths ahead of the 2022 elections, his government’s response to anti-government protests in 2024 and 2025 revived questions about his attitude towards dissent. Local and international human rights groups claim that the authorities used excessive violence, abduction, and even torture to suppress the unrest.
In this context, disregarding the court order against the establishment of the Ebola quarantine facility is likely to strengthen accusations of authoritarianism against Ruto. In our view, Ruto is still likely to secure re-election, given his success in co-opting a wide range of political and community leaders across the country. His campaign will focus on rural areas, where most Kenyans live, and the reach of youth movements is limited. However, these dynamics will undermine the president’s legitimacy, especially in urban areas, making it harder to manage existing socio-economic grievances.
Mass unrest?
Opposition leaders are also likely to exploit public perceptions to sensationalise reports of police brutality or other wrongdoing against the Ruto administration. Protests, which will occur more frequently as the elections approach, are likely to be even more contentious in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of another round of mass unrest across major cities. The security forces will tighten their heavy-handed attitude toward protests, leading to violence in many instances. Businesses will face brief but increasingly regular periods of disruption in the coming year. In addition, operators, including NGOs and development partners, will face mounting suspicion from young people.
If not well managed, the scrutiny arising from this suspicion could expose organisations to reputational damage, especially given the rise of misinformation in the Kenyan digital space. We advise all organisations that openly collaborate with the Kenyan government in sensitive sectors such as health, agriculture, and security to strengthen the focus on youth leaders in their community engagement strategies.
Sources
“Protests over US Ebola site in Kenya kill two, court keeps block” Reuters
“After silence, Ruto finally speaks on Ebola deal” Daily Nation
For tailored analysis on the threat of unrest in Kenya, please contact Africa Investigates Incorporated.
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