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Access to Capital and the Risk of Default – Is Africa Being Too Harshly Assessed?

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Africa needs capital to finance development. But does the way international ratings agencies assess African economies make that capital unnecessarily expensive? On October 7, the Mauritius-based Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) was officially launched, an initiative that has been years in the making. It has been driven by the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), with …

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Illegal Gold Extraction: A Continent-Wide Problem — Looking for Real Solutions

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Illegal gold extraction is a continent-wide problem, depriving African states of significant revenue while causing severe environmental damage and creating opportunities for criminal networks. Repression alone has repeatedly failed to eliminate illegal gold operations, as demonstrated by Côte d’Ivoire’s experience over the past decade. Local communities have economic stakes in illegal gold extraction, with the …

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The Ebola epidemic in the DR Congo: a severely neglected public health crisis

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There has been a declared Ebola outbreak in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is currently into its fourth month. It is mostly affecting three key provinces (Ituri, Nord-Kivi, Tshopo) but which have to a lesser extent also affected other adjacent provinces. So far, the neighbouring countries of Central African Republic, South …

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A Test of Loyalty: Niger’s Mutiny and the Shifting Sahelian Balance

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A mutiny by Niger’s Special Forces against the Presidential Guard on 29 August was suppressed within 24 hours with Russian (Africa Corps) and Algerian military support. The episode exposes deep structural rifts and command weaknesses in the Nigerien army, undermining its ability to counter jihadist attacks near the capital. Algeria’s involvement is driven by three …

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The Sahel’s Endless War: Stalemate, Repression, and the Perils of Investment

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Armed groups and Tuareg rebel movements continue attacks across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Neither side can win outright—insurgents lack the force to take capitals, while juntas cannot re‑establish full state control—resulting in a prolonged, stagnant, and geographically spreading conflict. The three military rulers are primarily focused on retaining power. Russia provides military hardware and …

The Sahel’s Endless War: Stalemate, Repression, and the Perils of Investment Read More »

CAMEROON’S CLAN WARS AT THE VERY TOP DO NOT DETER INVESTORS – YET

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The 93‑year‑old president has been away from Cameroon for over two months (in Geneva), fuelling succession speculation, though the government insists he remains in control. Biya has repeatedly rotated top generals, particularly after the 2023 Gabon coup, to discourage a military takeover; the immediate coup threat is considered low. Key players (Ngoh Ngoh, Mvondo Ayolo) …

CAMEROON’S CLAN WARS AT THE VERY TOP DO NOT DETER INVESTORS – YET Read More »

A RETURN OF FORMER PRESIDENT UMARO SISSOCO EMBALÓ TO GUINEA BISSAU?

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A new Constitution will be voted in on August 30; it contains all items on former president Umaru Sissoco Embaló’s wish list. General elections will be held on December 6 but these may be delayed. Both referendum and elections, prepared by a transitional government that is led by friends and allies of Embaló’s, will pave …

A RETURN OF FORMER PRESIDENT UMARO SISSOCO EMBALÓ TO GUINEA BISSAU? Read More »

Tanga or Mombasa? Dangote’s Refinery Gambit Tests EAC Diplomacy

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On 4 May, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu chastised her Kenyan counterpart, William Ruto, for announcing a planned oil refinery project in Tanga (Tanzania), claiming that she was not consulted. The planned refinery project is set to be funded by prominent Nigerian businessman Aligo Dangote to serve the East African Community (EAC) regional bloc. However, the …

Tanga or Mombasa? Dangote’s Refinery Gambit Tests EAC Diplomacy Read More »

US Hits Kabila: Win for Tshisekedi, But M23 Withdrawal Hinges on Rwanda

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On 30 April, the US sanctioned the DRC’s former President, Joseph Kabila (2001–2019), accusing him of funding the Rwanda-backed March 23 (M23) rebel group. The sanctions will boost President Felix Tshisekedi’s bargaining power, as he steps up efforts to co-opt sections of the M23 through a mix of intimidation and negotiation. This is likely to …

US Hits Kabila: Win for Tshisekedi, But M23 Withdrawal Hinges on Rwanda Read More »

Russia’s failing Mali bargain: Attacks near presidency trigger new coup risk

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On 28 April, Russian private military company Africorps announced that it had withdrawn from the Malian town of Kidal after two days of intense fighting with Tuareg rebels. Following a series of coordinated armed attacks in several parts of Mali, including the capital Bamako and the military town of Kati, on 24 April, the security …

Russia’s failing Mali bargain: Attacks near presidency trigger new coup risk Read More »

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