Politics

Sudan crisis set to worsen despite senior RSF defection to army

On 18 April, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), met with Maj. Gen. Al-Nour Ahmed Adam (also known as Al-Nour Guba), who recently defected from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group. Fighting between the RSF and the SAF, which escalated into a civil war in April 2023, has intensified …

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Gold, guns, and patronage: Why DRC’s refinery reform may falter

On 9 April, Andre Wameso, the Governor of the Congo (DRC)’s Central Bank (BCC), announced that the BCC had received its first batch of refined gold from the country’s first gold refinery. This is part of the BCC’s first structured gold purchasing initiative, which is supposed to rely on the recently launched gold refinery in …

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Succession shuffle in Yaoundé: Why Biya’s new VP post sets the stage for political violence

On 4 April, Cameroon’s parliament passed a bill that introduces the post of Vice President as an automatic successor to the president in the event of a death or incapacitation in office. The move is intended to preserve the status quo, even as rival factions of the ruling Cameroonian Peopleʼs Democratic Movement (RDPC) compete to …

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Geopolitical Rivalry Opens Door for Kenya, but South Africa Holds Ground

On 26 March, French officials denied reports that they had disinvited South Africa to the upcoming G7 summit in June. They added that Kenya would be invited instead to participate in international finance reform discussions. Amid rising global geopolitical polarisation, Kenya and South Africa will face mounting pressures to align with the US and its …

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Mali’s Fuel Crisis Deal May Backfire as JNIM Gains Leverage

On 22 March, AFP reported that hundreds of Islamist fighters were released from jail in Mali’s capital, Bamako, amid negotiations between the authorities and Islamist militant group Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM). The release of the prisoners is intended to discourage further attacks by JNIM on fuel tankers and end the acute fuel shortages that have plagued …

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Denis Sassou Nguesso Set to Retain Power, but Succession Uncertainty Clouds Congo’s Stability Outlook

On 15 March, the Republic of Congo held its presidential election, amid reports of low turnout. Denis Sassou Nguesso is the clear front-runner, given the dominance of his ruling Congolese Labour Party (PCT) and the weakness of the opposition. The results are likely to be contested by the opposition, amid allegations of foul play. This …

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Africa caught in the crossfire: The ripple effects of escalating Gulf tensions

On 9 March, the AU expressed concern over recent attacks on critical energy and transport infrastructure, amid the ongoing conflict between the US/Israel and Iran. A prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf could further expose some African countries to debt distress, as high fuel import bills hamper fiscal reforms and concessional lending. This, coupled with …

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Somaliland: Critical mineral offer unlikely to sway the US

On 21 February, Khadar Hussein Abdi, the presidency minister of the self-declared independent state of Somaliland, said that Somaliland is willing to give the US exclusive access to its mineral resources. Somaliland is hoping to capitalise on the growing desire of the US to erode China’s influence over global critical supply chains to attract US …

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Senegal: Debt Pressures Cast Shadow Over $100m State-Led Oil Ambitions

On 10 February, Alioune Gueye, the CEO of Senegal’s state-owned oil company Petrosen, said that the firm plans to launch a USD 100m onshore oil exploration project later this year. The planned project reflects Senegal’s growing efforts to boost the state’s control over the development of the oil and gas sector, in line with President …

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