Politics

The Sahel’s Endless War: Stalemate, Repression, and the Perils of Investment

Armed groups and Tuareg rebel movements continue attacks across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Neither side can win outright—insurgents lack the force to take capitals, while juntas cannot re‑establish full state control—resulting in a prolonged, stagnant, and geographically spreading conflict. The three military rulers are primarily focused on retaining power. Russia provides military hardware and …

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CAMEROON’S CLAN WARS AT THE VERY TOP DO NOT DETER INVESTORS – YET

The 93‑year‑old president has been away from Cameroon for over two months (in Geneva), fuelling succession speculation, though the government insists he remains in control. Biya has repeatedly rotated top generals, particularly after the 2023 Gabon coup, to discourage a military takeover; the immediate coup threat is considered low. Key players (Ngoh Ngoh, Mvondo Ayolo) …

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A RETURN OF FORMER PRESIDENT UMARO SISSOCO EMBALÓ TO GUINEA BISSAU?

A new Constitution will be voted in on August 30; it contains all items on former president Umaru Sissoco Embaló’s wish list. General elections will be held on December 6 but these may be delayed. Both referendum and elections, prepared by a transitional government that is led by friends and allies of Embaló’s, will pave …

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Tanga or Mombasa? Dangote’s Refinery Gambit Tests EAC Diplomacy

On 4 May, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu chastised her Kenyan counterpart, William Ruto, for announcing a planned oil refinery project in Tanga (Tanzania), claiming that she was not consulted. The planned refinery project is set to be funded by prominent Nigerian businessman Aligo Dangote to serve the East African Community (EAC) regional bloc. However, the …

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US Hits Kabila: Win for Tshisekedi, But M23 Withdrawal Hinges on Rwanda

On 30 April, the US sanctioned the DRC’s former President, Joseph Kabila (2001–2019), accusing him of funding the Rwanda-backed March 23 (M23) rebel group. The sanctions will boost President Felix Tshisekedi’s bargaining power, as he steps up efforts to co-opt sections of the M23 through a mix of intimidation and negotiation. This is likely to …

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Russia’s failing Mali bargain: Attacks near presidency trigger new coup risk

On 28 April, Russian private military company Africorps announced that it had withdrawn from the Malian town of Kidal after two days of intense fighting with Tuareg rebels. Following a series of coordinated armed attacks in several parts of Mali, including the capital Bamako and the military town of Kati, on 24 April, the security …

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Sudan crisis set to worsen despite senior RSF defection to army

On 18 April, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), met with Maj. Gen. Al-Nour Ahmed Adam (also known as Al-Nour Guba), who recently defected from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group. Fighting between the RSF and the SAF, which escalated into a civil war in April 2023, has intensified …

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Gold, guns, and patronage: Why DRC’s refinery reform may falter

On 9 April, Andre Wameso, the Governor of the Congo (DRC)’s Central Bank (BCC), announced that the BCC had received its first batch of refined gold from the country’s first gold refinery. This is part of the BCC’s first structured gold purchasing initiative, which is supposed to rely on the recently launched gold refinery in …

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Succession shuffle in Yaoundé: Why Biya’s new VP post sets the stage for political violence

On 4 April, Cameroon’s parliament passed a bill that introduces the post of Vice President as an automatic successor to the president in the event of a death or incapacitation in office. The move is intended to preserve the status quo, even as rival factions of the ruling Cameroonian Peopleʼs Democratic Movement (RDPC) compete to …

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Geopolitical Rivalry Opens Door for Kenya, but South Africa Holds Ground

On 26 March, French officials denied reports that they had disinvited South Africa to the upcoming G7 summit in June. They added that Kenya would be invited instead to participate in international finance reform discussions. Amid rising global geopolitical polarisation, Kenya and South Africa will face mounting pressures to align with the US and its …

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