Politics

Tanga or Mombasa? Dangote’s Refinery Gambit Tests EAC Diplomacy

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On 4 May, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu chastised her Kenyan counterpart, William Ruto, for announcing a planned oil refinery project in Tanga (Tanzania), claiming that she was not consulted. The planned refinery project is set to be funded by prominent Nigerian businessman Aligo Dangote to serve the East African Community (EAC) regional bloc. However, the …

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US Hits Kabila: Win for Tshisekedi, But M23 Withdrawal Hinges on Rwanda

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On 30 April, the US sanctioned the DRC’s former President, Joseph Kabila (2001–2019), accusing him of funding the Rwanda-backed March 23 (M23) rebel group. The sanctions will boost President Felix Tshisekedi’s bargaining power, as he steps up efforts to co-opt sections of the M23 through a mix of intimidation and negotiation. This is likely to …

US Hits Kabila: Win for Tshisekedi, But M23 Withdrawal Hinges on Rwanda Read More »

Russia’s failing Mali bargain: Attacks near presidency trigger new coup risk

Sudan crisis set to worsen despite senior RSF defection to army

Gold, guns, and patronage: Why DRC’s refinery reform may falter

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On 9 April, Andre Wameso, the Governor of the Congo (DRC)’s Central Bank (BCC), announced that the BCC had received its first batch of refined gold from the country’s first gold refinery. This is part of the BCC’s first structured gold purchasing initiative, which is supposed to rely on the recently launched gold refinery in …

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Succession shuffle in Yaoundé: Why Biya’s new VP post sets the stage for political violence

Geopolitical Rivalry Opens Door for Kenya, but South Africa Holds Ground

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On 26 March, French officials denied reports that they had disinvited South Africa to the upcoming G7 summit in June. They added that Kenya would be invited instead to participate in international finance reform discussions. Amid rising global geopolitical polarisation, Kenya and South Africa will face mounting pressures to align with the US and its …

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Mali’s Fuel Crisis Deal May Backfire as JNIM Gains Leverage

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On 22 March, AFP reported that hundreds of Islamist fighters were released from jail in Mali’s capital, Bamako, amid negotiations between the authorities and Islamist militant group Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM). The release of the prisoners is intended to discourage further attacks by JNIM on fuel tankers and end the acute fuel shortages that have plagued …

Mali’s Fuel Crisis Deal May Backfire as JNIM Gains Leverage Read More »

Denis Sassou Nguesso Set to Retain Power, but Succession Uncertainty Clouds Congo’s Stability Outlook

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On 15 March, the Republic of Congo held its presidential election, amid reports of low turnout. Denis Sassou Nguesso is the clear front-runner, given the dominance of his ruling Congolese Labour Party (PCT) and the weakness of the opposition. The results are likely to be contested by the opposition, amid allegations of foul play. This …

Denis Sassou Nguesso Set to Retain Power, but Succession Uncertainty Clouds Congo’s Stability Outlook Read More »

Africa caught in the crossfire: The ripple effects of escalating Gulf tensions

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On 9 March, the AU expressed concern over recent attacks on critical energy and transport infrastructure, amid the ongoing conflict between the US/Israel and Iran. A prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf could further expose some African countries to debt distress, as high fuel import bills hamper fiscal reforms and concessional lending. This, coupled with …

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Tanga or Mombasa? Dangote’s Refinery Gambit Tests EAC Diplomacy

US Hits Kabila: Win for Tshisekedi, But M23 Withdrawal Hinges on Rwanda

Russia’s failing Mali bargain: Attacks near presidency trigger new coup risk

Sudan crisis set to worsen despite senior RSF defection to army

Gold, guns, and patronage: Why DRC’s refinery reform may falter

Succession shuffle in Yaoundé: Why Biya’s new VP post sets the stage for political violence

Geopolitical Rivalry Opens Door for Kenya, but South Africa Holds Ground

Mali’s Fuel Crisis Deal May Backfire as JNIM Gains Leverage

Denis Sassou Nguesso Set to Retain Power, but Succession Uncertainty Clouds Congo’s Stability Outlook

Africa caught in the crossfire: The ripple effects of escalating Gulf tensions

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