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Africa caught in the crossfire: The ripple effects of escalating Gulf tensions

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On 9 March, the AU expressed concern over recent attacks on critical energy and transport infrastructure, amid the ongoing conflict between the US/Israel and Iran. A prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf could further expose some African countries to debt distress, as high fuel import bills hamper fiscal reforms and concessional lending. This, coupled with …

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Somaliland: Critical mineral offer unlikely to sway the US

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On 21 February, Khadar Hussein Abdi, the presidency minister of the self-declared independent state of Somaliland, said that Somaliland is willing to give the US exclusive access to its mineral resources. Somaliland is hoping to capitalise on the growing desire of the US to erode China’s influence over global critical supply chains to attract US …

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Senegal: Debt Pressures Cast Shadow Over $100m State-Led Oil Ambitions

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On 10 February, Alioune Gueye, the CEO of Senegal’s state-owned oil company Petrosen, said that the firm plans to launch a USD 100m onshore oil exploration project later this year. The planned project reflects Senegal’s growing efforts to boost the state’s control over the development of the oil and gas sector, in line with President …

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Uranium Dispute with France Shapes Niger Junta’s Investment and Security Strategy

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On 4 February, Nigerien Justice Minister Alio Daouda announced that Niger would take legal action against French state-owned mining company Orano due to environmental degradation. Faced with worsening fiscal constraints and a worsening terrorism threat, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, who took over the presidency after a coup d’état on 26 July 2023, will seek to woo …

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Renewed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray unlikely despite mounting tensions

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On 31 January, two separate drone strikes hit Enticho and Gendebta (Tigray Regional State), killing one person and injuring another. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which engaged in a two-year conflict with the federal government in 2020, will push back heavily against the efforts of the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) to co-opt Tigrayan political …

Renewed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray unlikely despite mounting tensions Read More »

Rwanda/DRC conflict enters a new phase as Rwanda admits backing rebels

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On 22 January, Rwandan Ambassador to the US Mathilde Mukantabana told US lawmakers that Rwanda engages in “security coordination” with the March 23 rebel group, which has occupied large territories in neighbouring Eastern DRC since January 2025. For decades, Rwanda has denied any collaboration with the M23 despite multiple reports by the UN and independent …

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Kenya’s Geopolitical Tightrope: New China Trade Deal Tests US Relations

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On 20 January, Kenyan Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui announced that Kenya had concluded a preliminary duty-free trade agreement with China. The agreement, which is expected to pave the way for a bilateral treaty, grants 98% of Kenyan exports tariff-free access to Chinese markets. It underlines Kenya’s growing preference for economic cooperation with China, amid growing …

Kenya’s Geopolitical Tightrope: New China Trade Deal Tests US Relations Read More »

Between Populism and Default: Why Senegal’s Debt Restructuring is Inevitable

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On 13 January, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko publicly ruled out restructuring the nation’s debt, which the IMF places at 132% of GDP. Sonko’s stance against debt restructuring is at least partially driven by genuine concerns over its likely impact on the country’s reputation in the international financial markets. However, political considerations, especially the need to …

Between Populism and Default: Why Senegal’s Debt Restructuring is Inevitable Read More »

Forecast: Uganda’s 2026 Elections to Fuel Localized Unrest Amid Museveni’s Bid for Seventh Term

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Uganda’s Ministry of Information has banned live broadcasts of “riots” ahead of the 15 January general elections, a move critics fear signals a broader crackdown. The government has restricted Starlink internet services and a pattern of violence against opposition figures is increasing, including the detention of veteran leader Kizza Besigye. President Yoweri Museveni, 81, is …

Forecast: Uganda’s 2026 Elections to Fuel Localized Unrest Amid Museveni’s Bid for Seventh Term Read More »

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