On 4 February, Nigerien Justice Minister Alio Daouda announced that Niger would take legal action against French state-owned mining company Orano due to environmental degradation.
- Faced with worsening fiscal constraints and a worsening terrorism threat, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, who took over the presidency after a coup d’état on 26 July 2023, will seek to woo a wide range of foreign governments and business interests in the coming year.
- To facilitate this, he will be keen to reduce France’s bargaining power amid an ongoing dispute over Orano’s uranium stocks in Niger, including by exploiting genuine concerns over environmental degradation resulting from uranium projects.
- However, in the absence of genuine efforts to restore civilian rule, Tiani will struggle to attract foreign investment and security backing, at least in the coming year or so.
- In the meantime, Nigerien authorities will heighten their aggressive tax collection methods, exposing operators in the oil and gas and agricultural sectors to extortive practices and, potentially, legal action.
- These dynamics will also embolden Islamists based in neighbouring Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria to step up attacks in Niger, including the capital Niamey and its surroundings.
Uranium waste
Daouda accused Orano of causing an “environmental disaster” in Niger, claiming that the firm is responsible for the presence of 400 barrels of radioactive waste in Arlit in northern Niger. According to local rights groups, there is a presence of 75,000 tonnes of radioactive waste resulting from uranium mining in Niger. They claim that this has already resulted in land contamination.
Orano, which is 90% owned by the French government, was the main uranium producer in Niger until 2023, when the military junta revoked its mining licence. Following this, the Nigerien government in June 2025 nationalised one of Orano’s local subsidiaries – Somair. The government previously owned 37% of Somair, while the remainder was owned by Orano. Orano condemned the decision and initiated arbitration proceedings. On 27 November 2025, the firm said that a shipment of at least 1,000 tonnes of concentrated uranium had been illegally transported from the Somair project and threatened legal action against the Nigerien government. A few days later, the Nigerien government announced that it would sell uranium from the Somair project on the international market.
Diplomatic campaign
The planned legal action is likely intended to weaken Orano’s existing legal claims against the Nigerien government. More broadly, Niger is hoping to exploit the genuine concerns among international environmentalists – including in the EU – over radioactive contamination in Niger to weaken France’s position. Although this is mostly aimed at expediting the export of Uranium stocks, it also suggests that the Nigerien government is keen to diversify its network of foreign security and trade partners. For many of these partners, Orano’s ongoing arbitration cases against Niger and France’s continued opposition to the military regime would represent a major impediment to engaging with Niger.
Indeed, despite its closer ties to Russia, Niger has struggled to adapt to the major reduction in aid following the coup. The country is grappling with serious fiscal pressures, which, coupled with the instability resulting from the coup, have made it even harder for the government to address socio-economic issues and reduce its vulnerability to external shocks and climate change.
These financial woes have exposed the serious capacity constraints facing the security apparatus, especially in the aftermath of the withdrawal of French troops in December 2023. On 29 January, the Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP) attacked the Diori Hamani International Airport and nearby military base, close to Niamey. Although the Nigerien army, in collaboration with Russian troops, responded swiftly and defused the situation, the event marks ISSP’s first major attack in Niamey in decades. The junta capitalised on anti-France sentiments among sections of the population to justify the coup. As such, any further attacks in Niamey would seriously hamper the regime’s legitimacy. This could undermine President Tiani’s position, especially because his ability to distribute patronage to his allies has reduced due to the aid cuts.
He has thus far been able to prevent widespread protests by heavily repressing the opposition and co-opting vocal activists, but this may not be sustainable if frustrations over insecurity and living conditions continue to rise. The local civil society is resilient and has historically mobilised large protests to demand regime change. As Nigerien military leaders have historically used popular backlash to justify coups, Tiani will seek to improve both the capacity of the military and state finances. He will be keen to capitalise on the rising global geopolitical competition to woo a wide range of foreign partners, including the US.
Return to civilian rule?
This strategy will require Niger to concede on some governance issues, especially the transfer of power to a civilian authority and the adoption of a more balanced engagement with Russia. Although this bodes well for foreign investors in the long term, there is currently limited political will in Niger to institute genuine political reforms. Moreover, the impasse with France over Orano’s uranium projects and stocks is likely to persist in the next few years. France’s global influence and alignment with the US, as well as its growing ties to ECOWAS heavyweights such as Nigeria, will make it difficult for Niger to obtain major security support or investment from the US, middle powers, and in the region. This is likely to sustain serious budget shortfalls, as well as deficiencies in the security apparatus.
Security, tax risks
Attacks by ISSP, Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram, and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) – an Al Qaeda affiliate – will remain concentrated in Western Niger, close to the Burkina/Mali borders, as they face stiff resistance from Russian troops in the capital. Despite this, the frequency of attacks in Niamey and its outskirts will also increase, exposing operators, especially foreign firms, to serious security threats. Attacks on cargo vehicles containing uranium are also increasingly likely along the main export routes, especially in Diffa, close to the Niger-Nigeria border.
Businesses in the oil and gas sector, and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector, will be increasingly exposed to extortive tax compliance practices, as the authorities use the continued informality and dysfunction in the tax system to boost revenue collection. Contested tax bills are increasingly likely to escalate into major disputes with the government, especially as the authorities use licence revocation to force firms into compliance.
Sources
Niger military government to sue French uranium giant over environment, Africanews
Why is Niger filing a complaint against Orano? DW
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